Publications

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Preprints:

Newbold, T., Tittensor, D.P., Harfoot, M.B.J., Scharlemann, J.P.W. & Purves, D.W. (2018). Non-linear changes in modelled terrestrial ecosystems subjected to perturbations. bioRxiv. DOI: 10.1101/439059.
De Palma, A., Hoskins, A., Gonzalez, R.E., Newbold, T., Sanchez-Ortiz, K., Ferrier, S. & Purivs, A. (2018). Changes in the Biodiversity Intactness Index in tropical and subtropical forest biomes, 2001-2012. bioRxiv. DOI: 10.1101/311688.
Hill, S.L.L., Gonzalez, R., Sanchez-Ortiz, K., Caton, E., Espinoza, F., Newbold, T., Tylianakis, J., Scharlemann, J.P.W., De Palma, A. & Purvis A. (2018). Worldwide impacts of past and projected future land-use change on local species richness and the Biodiversity Intactness Index. bioRxiv. DOI: 10.1101/311787.
Leclère, D., Obersteiner, M., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Barrett, M., Bunting, G., Burgess, N.D., Butchart, S.H.M., Chaudhary, A., Cornell, S., De Palma, A., DeClerck, F.A.J., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J.C., Durauer, M., Ferrier, S., Freeman, R., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T.D., Hasegawa, T., Havlík, P., Hellweg, S., Herrero, M., Hilbers, J.P., Hill, S.L.L., Hoskins, A.J., Humpenöder, F., Kram, T., Krisztin, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Mace, G.M., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Ohashi, H., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Schipper, A.M., Schimdt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B.B.N., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., van Meijl, H., van Vuuren, D.P., van Zeist, W.-J., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Watson, J.E.M., Wu, W. & Young, L. (2018). Towards pathways bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity trends within the 21st century. IIASA. DOI: 10.22022/ESM/04-2018.15241.

In Press:

Gibb, R., Redding, D.W., Qing Chin, K., Donnelly, C.A., Blackburn, T.M., Newbold, T. & Jones, K.E. (in press). Zoonotic host diversity increases in human-dominated ecosystems. Nature. DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2562-8.

2020:

Soroye, P., Newbold T. & Kerr, J. (2020). Climate change contributes to widespread declines among bumble bees across continents. Science 367: 685-688. DOI: 10.1126/science.aax8591. Coverage.
Rounsevell, M.D.A., Harfoot, M., Harrison, P.A., Newbold, T., Gregory, R.D. & Mace, G.M. (2020). A biodiversity target based on species extinctions. Science 368: 1193-1195. DOI: 10.1126/science.aba6592.
Newbold, T., Bentley, L.F., Hill, S.L.L., Edgar, M.J., Horton, M., Su, G., Sekercioglu, C.H., Collen, B. & Puvis, A. (2020). Global effects of land use on biodiversity differ among functional groups. Functional Ecology 34: 684-693. DOI: 10.1111/1365-2435.13500. Coverage.
Williams, J.J., Bates, A.E. & Newbold, T. (2020). Human‐dominated land uses favour species affiliated with more extreme climates, especially in the tropics. Ecography 43: 391-405. DOI: 10.1111/ecog.04806.
Millard, J.W., Freeman, R. & Newbold, T. (2020). Text‐analysis reveals taxonomic and geographic disparities in animal pollination literature. Ecography 43: 44-59. DOI: 10.1111/ecog.04532.
Williams, J.J. & Newbold, T. (2020). Local climatic changes affect biodiversity responses to land use: A review. Diversity & Distributions 26: 76-92. DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12999.
Sykes, L., Santini, L., Etard, A. & Newbold, T. (2020). Effects of rarity form on species’ responses to land use. Conservation Biology 34: 688-696. DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13419.
García-Vega, D. & Newbold, T. (2020). Assessing the effects of land use on biodiversity in the world’s drylands and Mediterranean environments. Biodiversity & Conservation 29: 393-408. DOI: 10.1007/s10531-019-01888-4.
Lade, S.J., Steffen, W., de Vries, W., Carpenter, S.R., Donges, J.F., Gerten, D., Hoff, H., Newbold, T., Richardson, K. & Rockström (2020). Human impacts on planetary boundaries amplified by Earth system interactions. Nature Sustainability 3: 119-128. DOI: 10.1038/s41893-019-0454-4.

2019:

Newbold, T., Adams, G.L., Albaladejo Robles, G., Boakes, E.H., Braga Ferreira, G., Chapman, A.S.A., Etard, A., Gibb, R., Millard, J., Outhwaite, C.L. & Williams, J.J. (2019). Climate and land-use change homogenise terrestrial biodiversity, with consequences for ecosystem functioning and human well-being. Emerging Topics in Life Sciences 3: 207-219. DOI: 10.1042/ETLS20180135. Open version.
Newbold, T. (2019). The trouble with trade. Nature Ecology & Evolution 3: 522-523. DOI: 10.1038/s41559-019-0816-3.
Beckmann, M., Gerstner, K., Akin-Fajiye, M., Ceasu, S., Kambach, S., Kinlock, N., Phillips, H.R.P., Verhagen, W., Gurevitch, J., Klotz, S., Newbold, T., Verburg, P., Winter, M. & Seppelt, R. (2019). Conventional land‐use intensification reduces species richness and increases production: A global meta‐analysis. Global Change Biology 25: 1941-1956. DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14606. Open version.
Jung, M., Rowhani, P., Newbold, T., Bentley, L., Purvis, A. & Scharlemann, J.P.W. (2019). Local species assemblages are influenced more by past than current dissimilarities in photosynthetic activity. Ecography 42: 670-682. DOI: 10.1111/ecog.04031. Open version.
Newbold, T., Sanchez-Ortiz, K., De Palma, A., Hill, S.L.L. & Purvis, A. (2019). Reply to ‘The biodiversity intactness index may underestimate losses’. Nature Ecology & Evolution 3: 864-865. DOI: 10.1038/s41559-019-0896-0.

2018:

Newbold, T., Hudson, L.N., Contu, S., Hill, S.L.L., Beck, J., Liu, Y., Meyer, C., Phillips, H.R.P., Scharlemann, J.P.W. & Purvis, A. (2018). Widespread winners and narrow-ranged losers: Land use homogenizes biodiversity in local assemblages worldwide. PLoS Biology 16: e2006841. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pbio.2006841 (Open access). Coverage.
Newbold, T. (2018). Future effects of climate and land-use change on terrestrial vertebrate community diversity under different scenarios. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B, Biological Sciences 285: 20180792. DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2018.0792 (Open access). Coverage.
Purvis, A., Newbold, T., De Palma, A., Contu, S., Hill, S.L.L., Sanchez-Ortiz, K., Phillips, H.R.P., Hudson, L.N., Lysenko, I., Borger, L. & Scharlemann, J.P.W. (2018). Modelling and projecting the response of local terrestrial biodiversity worldwide to land use and related pressures: The PREDICTS Project. Advances in Ecological Research 58: 201-241. DOI: 10.1016/bs.aecr.2017.12.003.

2017:

Newbold, T., Boakes, E.H., Hill, S.L.L., Harfoot, M.B.J. & Collen, B. (2017). The present and future effects of land use on ecological assemblages in tropical grasslands and savannas in Africa. Oikos 126: 1760-1769. DOI: 10.1111/oik.04338. Open version.
Hudson, L.N., Newbold, T., Contu, S., Hill, S.L.L., Lysenko, I., De Palma, A. Phillips, H.R.P., [hundreds of data collators and contributors], Collen, B., Ewers, R.M., Mace, G.M., Purves, D.W., Scharlemann, J.P.W. & Purvis, A. (2017). The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project. Ecology & Evolution 7: 145-188. DOI: 10.1002/ece3.2579 (Open access).
Jung, M., Hill, S.L.L., Platts, P.J., Marchant, R., Siebert, S., Fournier, A., Munyekenye, F.B., Purvis, A., Burgess, N.D. & Newbold, T. (2017). Local factors mediate the response of biodiversity to land use on two African mountains. Animal Conservation 20: 370-381. DOI: 10.1111/acv.12327. Open version.
Phillips, H.R.P., Newbold, T. & Purvis, A. (2017). Land-use effects on local biodiversity in tropical forests vary between continents. Biodiversity & Conservation 26: 2251-2270. DOI: 10.1007/s10531-017-1356-2 (Open access).
Thaxter, C.B., Buchanan, G.M., Carr, J., Butchart, S.H.M., Newbold, T., Green, R.E., Tobias, J.A., Foden, W.B., O'Brien, S. & Pearce-Higgins, J.W. (2017). Bird and bat species’ global vulnerability to collision mortality at wind farms revealed through a trait-based assessment. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B, Biological Sciences 284: 20170829. DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2017.0829. Open version.

2016:

Newbold, T., Hudson, L.N., Arnell, A.P., Contu, S., De Palma, A., Ferrier, S., Hill, S.L.L., Hoskins, A.J., Lysenko, I., Phillips, H.R.P., Burton, V.J., Chng, C.W.T., Emerson, S., Gao, D., Pask-Hale, G., Hutton, J., Jung, M., Sanchez-Ortiz, K., Simmons, B.I., Whitmee, S., Zhang, H., Scharlemann, J.P.W. & Purvis, A. (2016). Has land use pushed terrestrial biodiversity beyond the planetary boundary? A global assessment. Science 353: 288-291. DOI: 10.1126/science.aaf2201. Open version. Coverage.
Newbold, T., Hudson, L.N., Hill, S.L.L., Contu, S., Gray, C.L., Scharlemann, J.P.W., Börger, L., Phillips, H.R.P., Sheil, D., Lysenko, I. & Purvis, A. (2016). Global patterns of terrestrial assemblage turnover within and among land uses. Ecography 39: 1151-1163. DOI: 10.1111/ecog.01932 (Open access).
Gray, C.L., Hill, S.L.L., Newbold, T., Hudson, L.N., Börger, L., Contu, S., Hoskins, A.J., Ferrier, S., Purvis, A. & Scharlemann, J.P.W. (2016). Local biodiversity is higher inside than outside terrestrial protected areas worldwide. Nature Communications 7: 12306. DOI: 10.1038/ncomms12306 (Open access). Coverage.
Echeverría-Londoño, S., Newbold, T., Hudson, L.N., Contu, S., Hill, S., Lysenko, I., Arbeláez-Cortés, E., Armbrecht, I., Boekhout, T., Cabra-García, J., Dominguez-Haydar, Y., Nates-Parra, G., Gutierrez-Lamus, D., Higuera, D., Isaacs-Cubides, P.J., López-Quintero, C.A., Martinez, E., Miranda-Esquivel, D.R., Navarro-Iriarte, L.E., Noriega, J.A., Otavo, S.E., Parra-H, A., Poveda, K., Ramirez-Pinilla, M.P., Rey-Velasco, J.C., Rosselli, L., Smith-Pardo, A., Stiles, G., Urbina-Cardona, J.N. & Purvis, A. (2016). Modelling and projecting the response of Colombian biodiversity to land-use change. Diversity & Distributions 22: 1099-1111. DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12478. Open version.
Bartlett, L.J., Newbold, T., Purves, D.W., Tittensor, D.P., Harfoot, M.B.J. (2016). Synergistic impacts of habitat loss and fragmentation on model ecosystems. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B, Biological Sciences 283: 20161027. DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2016.1027 (Open access).
Seppelt, R., Beckmann, M., Ceasu, S., Cord, A.F., Gerstner, K., Gurevitch, J., Kambach, S., Klotz, S., Mendenhall, C., Phillips, H.R.P., Powell, K., Verburg, P.H., Verhagen, W., Winter, M. & Newbold, T. (2016). Harmonizing biodiversity conservation and productivity in the context of increasing demands on landscapes. Bioscience 66: 890-896. DOI: 10.1093/biosci/biw004 (Open access).
Hill, S.L.L., Harfoot, M., Purvis, A., Purves, D.W., Collen, B., Newbold, T., Burgess, N.D. & Mace, G.M. (2016). Reconciling biodiversity indicators to guide understanding and action. Conservation Letters 9: 405-412. DOI: 10.1111/conl.12291 (Open access).

2015:

Newbold, T., Hudson, L.N., Hill, S.L.L., Contu, S., Lysenko, I., Senior, R.A., Börger, L., Bennett, D.J., Choimes, A., Collen, B., Day, J., De Palma, A., Díaz, S., Echeverria-Londoño, S., Edgar, M.J., Feldman, A., Garon, M., Harrison, M.L.K., Alhusseini, T., Ingram, D.J., Itescu, Y., Kattge, J., Kemp, V., Kirkpatrick, L., Kleyer, M., Laginha Pinto Correia, D., Martin, C.D., Meiri, S., Novosolov, M., Pan, Y., Phillips, H.R.P., Purves, D.W., Robinson, A., Simpson, J., Tuck, S.L., Weiher, E., White, H.J., Ewers, R.M., Mace, G.M., Scharlemann, J.P.W. & Purvis, A. (2015). Global effects of land use on local terrestrial biodiversity. Nature 520: 45-50. DOI: 10.1038/nature14324. Open version. Coverage.
De Palma, A., Kuhlmann, M., Roberts, S.P.M., Potts, S.G., Borger, L., Hudson, L.N., Lysenko, I., Newbold, T. & Purvis, A. (2015). Ecological traits affect the sensitivity of bees to land-use pressures in European agricultural landscapes. Journal of Applied Ecology 52: 1567-1577. DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.12524 (Open access). Coverage.

2014:

Newbold, T., Hudson, L.N., Phillips, H.R.P., Hill, S.L.L., Contu, S., Lysenko, I., Blandon, A., Butchart, S.H.M., Booth, H.L., Day, J., De Palma, A., Harrison, M.L.K., Kirkpatrick, L., Pynegar, E., Robinson, A., Simpson, J., Mace, G.M., Scharlemann, J.P.W. & Purvis, A. (2014). A global model of the response of tropical and sub-tropical forest biodiversity to anthropogenic pressures. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B, Biological Sciences 281: 20141371. DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2014.1371 (Open access).
Newbold, T., Scharlemann, J.P.W., Butchart, S.H.M., Şekercioğlu, Ç.H., Joppa, L., Alkemade, R. & Purves, D.W. (2014). Functional traits, land-use change and the structure of present and future bird communities in tropical forests. Global Ecology & Biogeography 23: 1073-1084. DOI: 10.1111/geb.12186.
Harfoot, M., Newbold, T., Tittensor, D.P., Emmott, S., Hutton, J., Lyutsarev, V., Smith, M.J., Scharlemann, J.P.W. & Purves, D.W. (2014). Emergent global patterns of ecosystem structure and function from a mechanistic General Ecosystem Model. PLoS Biology 12: e1001841. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pbio.1001841 (Open access). Coverage.
Hudson, L.N., Newbold, T., Contu, S., Hill, S.L.L., Lysenko, I., De Palma, A., Phillips, H.R.P., Senior, R.A., Bedford, F., Bennett, D., Booth, H., Choimes, S., Laginha Correia Pinto, D., Day, J., Echeverría-Londoño, S., Garon, M., Harrison, M.L.K., Ingram, D.I., Jung, M., Kemp, V., Kirkpatrick, L., Martin, C., Pan, Y., Robinson, A., White, H., [hundreds of data contributors], Collen, B., Ewers, R.M., Mace, G.M., Purves, D.W., Scharlemann, J.P.W. & Purvis, A. (2014). The PREDICTS database: a global database of how local terrestrial biodiversity responds to human impacts. Ecology & Evolution 4: 4701–4735. DOI: 10.1002/ece3.1303 (Open access).
Tittensor, D.P., Walpole, M., Hill, S.L.L., Boyce, D.G., Britten, G.L., Burgess, N.D., Butchart, S.H.M., Leadley, P.W., Regan, E.C., Alkemade, R., Baumung, R., Bellard, C., Bouwman, L., Bowles-Newark, N., Chenery, A.M., Cheung, W.W.L., Christensen, V., Cooper, H.D., Crowther, A.R., Dixon, M.J.R., Galli, A., Gaveau, V., Gregory, R.D., Gutierrez, N.L., Hirsch, T.L., Höft, R., Januchowski-Hartley, S.R., Karmann, M., Krug, C.B., Leverington, F.J., Loh, J., Kutsch Lojenga, R., Malsch, K., Marques, A., Morgan, D.H.W., Mumby, P.J., Newbold, T., Noonan-Mooney, K., Pagad, S.N., Parks, B.C., Pereira, H.M., Robertson, T., Rondinini, C., Santini, L., Scharlemann, J.P.W., , Schindler, S., Sumaila, U.R., Teh, L.S.L., van Kolck, J., Visconti, P. & Ye, Y. (2014). A mid-term analysis of progress towards international biodiversity targets. Science 346: 241-244. DOI: 10.1126/science.1257484. Coverage.
Harfoot, M., Tittensor, D.P., Newbold, T., McInerny, G., Smith, M. & Scharlemann, J.P.W. (2014). Integrated assessment models: the present and the future. Global Ecology and Biogeography 23: 124-143. DOI: 10.1111/geb.12100.
Marques, A., Pereira, H.M., Krug, C., Leadley, P.W., Visconti, P., Januchowski-Hartley, S.R., Krug, R.M., Alkemade, R., Bellard, C., Cheung, W.W.L., Christensen, V., Cooper, H.D., Hirsch, T., Hoft, R., van Kolck, J., Newbold, T., Noonan-Mooney, K., Regan, E.C., Rondinini, C., Sumaila, U.R, Teh, L.S.L. & Walpole, M. (2014). A framework to identify enabling and urgent actions for the 2020 Aichi Targets. Basic & Applied Ecology 15: 633-638. DOI: 10.1016/j.baae.2014.09.004.

2013:

Newbold, T., Scharlemann, J.P.W., Butchart, S.H.M., Sekercioglu, C.H., Alkemade, R., Booth, H. & Purves, D.W. (2013). Ecological traits affect the response of tropical forest bird species to land-use intensity. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B, Biological Sciences 280: 20122131. DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2012.2131. Coverage.
Purves, D., Scharlemann, J., Harfoot, M., Newbold, T., Tittensor, D.P., Hutton, J. & Emmott, S. (2013). Time to model all life on Earth. Nature 493: 295-297. DOI: 10.1038/493295a. Coverage. Read response.
Evans, M.R., Benton, T.G., Bithell, M., Ernande, B., Grimm, V., Hodgson, D.J., Mace, G., Morecroft, M., Moustakas, A., Murphy, E., Newbold, T., Petchey, O. & Smith, M. (2013). Predictive systems ecology. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B, Biological Sciences 280: 20131452. DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2013.1452 (Open access).

2012:

Newbold, T., Butchart, S.H.M., Sekercioglu, C.H., Purves, D.W. & Scharlemann, J.P.W. (2012). Mapping functional traits: comparing abundance and presence-absence estimates at large spatial scales. PLoS ONE 7: e44019. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0044019 (Open access).

2010:

Newbold, T., Reader, T., El-Gabbas, A., Berg, W., Shohdi, W.M., Zalat, S., Baha El Din, S. & Gilbert, F. (2010). Testing the accuracy of species distribution models using species records from a new field survey. Oikos 119: 1326-1334. DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0706.2009.18295.x.
Newbold, T. (2010). Applications and limitations of museum data for conservation and ecology, with particular attention to species distribution models. Progress in Physical Geography 34: 3-22. DOI: 10.1177/0309133309355630.

2009:

Newbold, T, Gilbert, F., Zalat, S., El-Gabbas, A. & Reader, T. (2009). Climate-based models of spatial patterns of species richness in Egypt’s butterfly and mammal fauna. Journal of Biogeography 36: 2085-2095. DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2699.2009.02140.x.
Newbold, T., Reader, T., Zalat, S., El-Gabbas, A. & Gilbert, F. (2009). Effect of characteristics of butterfly species on the accuracy of distribution models in an arid environment. Biodiversity & Conservation 18: 3629-3641. DOI: 10.1007/s10531-009-9668-5.

2008:

Newbold, T., Collins, S., Behnke, J., Eales, J., El-Geznawy, A., El-Tohamy, T., Ezzat, R., Farag, D., Gilbert, F., Jobling, S., Marhcant, D., Madaney, D., Mohamed, E., Zalat, H., Taylor, G., Woodward, B. & Zalat, S. (2008). Sentinel behaviour and the watchman's call in the Chukar at St Katherine Protectorate, Sinai, Egypt. Egyptian Journal of Biology 10: 42-53. Open access here.

2007:

Newbold, T., Meregalli, M., Colonnelli, E., Barclay, M., Elbanna, S., Abu Fandud, N., Flegg, F., Fouad, R., Gilbert, F., Hall, V., Hancock, C., Ismail, M., Osamy, S., Saber, I., Semida, F. & Zalat, S. (2007). Redescription of a weevil Paramecops sinaitus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Molytinae) from the Sinai and an ecological study of its interaction with the Sinai milkweed Asclepias sinaica (Gentianales: Asclepiadaceae). European Journal of Entomology 104: 505-515. DOI: 10.14411/eje.2007.071 (Open access).